Posts Tagged ‘Precious Metals’

Inflation Outlook Update & Its Impact on Self Directed IRAs

Sunday, September 30th, 2012

The Fed just recently announced that it will continue investing/printing $40B per month until the jobs picture improves. Two points about this :

1. This is confirmation that the programs and policies of the Fed and the current administration have not worked.

2. The basic prescription is that we should all continue to be punished for not spending more and therefore, the government is going to make us all take on more debt per person, via government printing, until our attitudes improve.

We believe that this approach falls into the the old adage of the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. That’s what the Fed and the administration are doing. They are going to continue to engage in the same practices of printing money and deficit spending thinking that at some point its going to work, even though it has not worked to date. For those of you who would argue that there has been improvement, I will contend that the improvement is in spite of government intervention and the fact that the Fed is engaging in a new, more aggressive program because of their actual statement of a very poor jobs market it evidence and an admission that it is not working.

What this means for inflation

To date, the Fed continues to report that inflation is in check and well within reasonable boundaries. We contend that inflation is not in check and is not within reasonable boundaries. Our reasoning is that the Fed continues to incorrectly factor the cost of energy into their equation. Secondly, they are ignoring the fact that many people are now working for lesser salaries than they were in 2008. Thirdly, most families net worth has shrunk by 10-20% of the pre-2008 levels. Fourthly, most peoples incomes are not even growing at the rate of inflation, and lastly, most people cannot invest and make 1-2% of of savings per year.

This all boils down to the fact that inflation is higher than the Fed tells us and peoples incomes are shrinking or not growing. This all has the affect of making goods and services more expensive for the average consumer. Therefore, we do have real inflation.

The coming flood and potential for hyperinflation

The Government has created $16T of debt. The government wants to spend another $40B per month. The government wants to continue printing and forcing money into the economy because things are not improving. At some point this money will start working its way into the economy and there is a lot of it. Once that starts happening, people will start holding that money in the form of debt and spending. This will lead us to think that happy days are here again. That spending activity will translate into price inflation for goods and services as all of these excess Fed dollars start chasing fewer goods and services. Its simple math and economics to see that prices could and will likely result in hyper inflationary levels.

Self Directed IRA recommendation

We foresee continued inflationary pressure on prices in the near and long term. Most of this price inflation will likely take hold mid 2013 and into 2014. We are already seeing the spike in gold and silver in response to the latest fed actions.

We see the prices for real estate to continue to stabilize. As the excess Fed dollars and low interest rates start to finally take effect, we think you will see more price stability and maybe higher than expected price increases in real estate.

We continue to see sluggishness in the job market, despite the Fed printing. 25% of the work force is not working. They have aged. They have not developed new skills. These structural disconnects will make it difficult to get people back to work and the ones that do, will not necessarily be coming back into high paying jobs like the pre-2008 levels. This will continue to make these people more oriented towards being savers and renters as there has been a permanent mind shift in the American public as a result of this recession.

Our recommendations

1. Continue to invest and hold precious metals in your Self Directed IRA.

2. Real estate will continue to look attractive for rental income and price appreciation may take hold. Its not clear to what extent price appreciation could materialize. You should be looking for real estate investment opportunities with your Self Directed IRA.

3. Private lending will continue to be a good opportunity for Self Directed IRAs. Despite the flood of Fed dollars, price inflation will be problematic for people, and they will continue to be under financial pressure due to be held in lower paying jobs with higher inflation. They will struggle to get lending from institutions. However, these same people will be more conservative than pre-2008. There will be good lending opportunities if you look, and qualify the right candidates.

Overall inflation risk is high. Hard asset investing in Self Directed IRAs is still critical to your overall portfolio strategy.

Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and are not a solicitation or offering of an investment, investment advice, or tax advice. You should consult with your tax, legal or financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments made with a self directed IRA account.

Dr Copper Update And Your Self Directed IRA

Saturday, August 25th, 2012

As we have mentioned before copper prices reflects the future expectation of of consumer demand. Consumer demand comprises 2/3rd of the GDP. Copper is a major metal used in numerous consumer goods and related services.

The current price pattern for copper is showing a head and shoulders pattern. Without getting too technical, this basically is a critical juncture in which price support needs to be established or else, we are looking a a drop in demand. A drop in demand predicts more dire economic circumstances for our future. As you will see below, we are in a head and should pattern.

What does this mean for self directed IRAs

If the prices for copper fall through support levels, then demand is clearly going down. Decreased demand means lower GDP. Lower GDP means less hiring and stagnant or increased unemployment. Worse unemployment means more printing by the Fed.

At the end of the day this means that we are looking at inflation and security issues for our investments.

Actions for your self directed IRA

Our recommendations is to continue holding metals in your self directed IRA. We believe that we are not going to see an appreciable increases in demand in the next few quarters. Therefore metals accumulation is recommended.

Real estate should be considered for your self directed IRA portfolio.

Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and are not a solicitation or offering of an investment, investment advice, or tax advice. You should consult with your tax, legal or financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments made with a self directed IRA account.

Gold Recognition As Money And Its Effect On Self Directed IRAs

Sunday, August 19th, 2012

In the June 18 meeting of the Fed ad FDIC they reviewed what are known as the Basel III standards for Banks. As a result of that meeting, the following key points were established:

1. Tier 1 assets, for banks, are the safest assets that a bank can hold in reserve

2. Gold is defined as a Tier 1 asset under these new Basel III standards

3. The reserve requirements just increased from 4% to 6%. The new standards allows the banks to increase their reserves by holding gold.

What does this mean

First of all its a clear statement and recognition that gold is as safe as cash when it comes to banking. Further, this means that the Fed and the banking system now, for the first time in a long time, see gold as money — not just some commodity to put in your portfolio.

What does this mean for your self directed IRA

This admission and acknowledgement that gold is money will likely cause even more gold buying and holding by banks and other financial institutions. This tells you that they value it as a safe haven. This means that you should place the same kind of value in the metal. Because of this, we continue to maintain the position that gold and silver should be a key part of your self directed IRA portfolio.

Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and are not a solicitation or offering of an investment, investment advice, or tax advice. You should consult with your tax, legal or financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments made with a self directed IRA account.

What The Lastest CPI Numbers Mean For Self Directed IRA

Wednesday, August 15th, 2012

The latest CPI numbers show that overall prices increased 0.05%. However, what this fails to acknowledge, and what the rest of us that live here know is that gas prices were up more like 7% in July. But, when we look at the infamous government figures the should be showing an increase of 0.24% vs. the 0.05%.

What does this tell us?

This tells us that the government is dealing with inaccurate, no-real figures when they set fiscal policy. This means that the US citizens have been and will continue to feel the pinch and pressure from failed economic policies for the foreseeable future.

What does this mean for self directed IRAs

Self directed IRAs continue to be a key retirement strategy for building your retirement. Self directed IRA investors are investing in hard assets and assets that are out of the direct control and manipulation of Wall Street and Washington. If you currently hav a self directed IRA, our current recommendations are to continue to look for and invest in rental properties. We are also advocating holding precious metals as the currency debasement and potential for more printing and dumping of the US dollar still has real potential.

Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and are not a solicitation or offering of an investment, investment advice, or tax advice. You should consult with your tax, legal or financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments made with a self directed IRA account.

The ISM Report And Your Self Directed IRA

Wednesday, August 1st, 2012

The July 2012 ISM report just came out and the the number came in at 49.8 versus the June number of 49.7.

The ISM report is a general measure of manufacturing activity and specifically how much manufacturers are planning in procuring for the business. A number below 50 indicates negative or contractionary environments. The ISM numbers were below 50 for the last two months which is a very clear contractionary signal.

What does this mean for Self Directed IRAs?

The contraction of the ISM numbers supports a series of other economic values which shows that the economy is not only slowing, but may actually be entering or have entered into a recession.

Recession is the perfect cover for the Fed to engage in more stimulus via printing. These policies will lead to inflation, weak demand. This is the type of environment in which you need to be holding precious metals and other hard assets such as real estate in your self directed IRA.

Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and are not a solicitation or offering of an investment, investment advice, or tax advice. You should consult with your tax, legal or financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments made with a self directed IRA account.