The reported, headline, GDP numbers just came in at 1.5% in the second quarter. This is a major revision downward from 2% in the first quarter of 2012. This brings the overall annual growth rate in at 2.2% versus the previous 2.4% in Q1 2012.
Overall these numbers are not statistically significant. In fact, it could be argued that we’ve actually seen negative GDP given the governments margin of error. What is significant and important about these recent numbers is that the supposed recovery which occurred in Q3 2011 actually has now shifted to Q4 2011 — a full quarter later. The significance of this is that the figures being reported are not reliable, accurate and maybe even not credible. If this line of logic hold true, then the fact that we are seeing a continued degradation and and downward pattern in key economic indicators means that the economy is likely already in recession.
What does this mean for my self directed IRA
We will continue to maintain that a self directed IRA, invested in non-traditional assets such as real estate, private placements, precious metals, etc. is a critical part of everyone’s retirement portfolio. The overall economic picture is not improving as evidenced by the recent GDP numbers. We are still advocating that investors allocate portions of their self directed IRA portfolio to precious metals. We also encourage investors to look at other non-traditional investments in real estate, small businesses and other non-publicly traded assets.